NOAA increases prediction for 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

1 week 2 days 14 hours ago Monday, August 12 2019 Aug 12, 2019 Monday, August 12, 2019 9:38:00 AM CDT August 12, 2019 in Continuous News
By: Meteorologist, Timothy Schmidt
loading

MIAMI, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has increased the likelihood of “above-normal” activity in the Atlantic Basin for the remainder of the 2019 hurricane season.

Their forecast update increased the probability of “above-normal” activity from 30% to 45%, including an increase in the amount of named storms (i.e. tropical storms) from 9-15, to 10-17 storms.

A normal Atlantic hurricane season consists of 12 named storms, 6 of which strengthen into hurricanes, 3 of those hurricanes reaching category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

To be clear, their forecasts are NOT landfall forecasts. Any seasonal landfall forecast you come across is very likely wrong. Their forecast only is to predict the number of storms with tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater, per season.

Up until the first week of August, there have only been three storms to reach tropical depression strength or greater. Two of those storms were named.

  1. Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea around May 21, which impacted Bermuda.

  2. Hurricane Barry around July 13, which impacted the Louisiana coast.

  3. Tropical depression three around July 24, off the Florida/Georgia coast.

Atmospheric conditions have not been conducive for tropical development for majority of the 2019 season, which began June 1. This is expected to change, possibly quickly and abruptly. 

Statistically, most hurricanes develop from August through October, not May through July..

On May 23, the National Hurricane Center issued its 2019 Atlantic hurricane forecast, predicting a “near-normal” amount of tropical cyclone activity this year due to a few key things:

  1. The winter El-Nino pattern would remain persistent into the summer months. This tends to discourage tropical development, suppressing overall activity

  2. Warmer than normal water temps would aid in tropical development. Would a storm develop, rapid development could be possible, as observed with Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018).

  3. The west African monsoonal season would be stronger this year, leading to increased opportunities for low pressure waves to form in the Sahara desert, then migrate into the Atlantic Ocean. This would increase the frequency of tropical storm systems (on average, 2-3 per week)

The latter two encourage tropical development, whereas the El Nino pattern would discourage tropical development

On August 8, the National Hurricane Center issued its mid-season update, predicting an increase in overall tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the 2019 season. 

The reason: the forecasted end of the current El Nino pattern which lead to significant rains over the United States this past winter and spring. This has also been responsible for the lack of overall activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. 

Pictured in this article is a diagram illustrating typical development of tropical waves in ideal conditions, which originate from Africa’s Sahara desert. 

Warm, dry areas of low pressure will organize over the warm waters of the Atlantic, creating thunderstorms. Assuming atmospheric conditions are perfect, the storm system will continue to organize and intensify until it turns into a counter-clockwise rotating cyclone, or hurricane if winds remain sustained at 74 MPH, or greater. 

Often, this is not the case. Dry air aloft kills storms. Strong, or even moderate jet stream winds aloft kills storms. These storms like calm conditions. These storms prefer a “lazy river” type of jet stream.

With some limiting factors now trending out of the long-range pattern, an uptick in tropical cyclone activity is possible leading into the peak months of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 31.

More News

Grid
List
COLUMBIA - The MU Police Department responded to a call at about 4 p.m. Wednesday to check on an... More >>
1 hour ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 11:05:15 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
MORGAN COUNTY - A motorcycle pursuit has Morgan County deputies and Eldon Police looking for a subject. The pursuit... More >>
2 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 9:57:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
OSAGE BEACH - An outside education service vendor used by multiple school districts across the state announced it had a... More >>
3 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 8:51:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
Farmers in southern Boone County are working together to repair a levee that broke after floods in June. The levee... More >>
4 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 8:23:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
VIENNA - The Maries County Sheriff's Department is continuing to investigate a house fire that they say someone intentionally started... More >>
5 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 6:59:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA – Students at Columbia College moved into a brand new residence hall Wednesday, the first housing structure built on... More >>
8 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:47:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
PRAIRIE HOME - The USDA released a weekly crop progress report Monday showing an incline in crop yield, but a... More >>
8 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:45:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
FULTON -- The Callaway County Humane Society is hoping to see additional funds from the county in its 2020 budget.... More >>
8 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:42:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Governor Mike Parson issued a proclamation Wednesday ordering the state legislature to convene in a special session. ... More >>
11 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:44:00 PM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
FULTON, Mo. - Fulton Police Department said it arrested a man attempting to flee a scene involving firearms. Authorities... More >>
16 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 8:05:00 AM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
School is starting back up again, but reading might not be the first thing on a child’s mind. A workshop... More >>
23 hours ago Wednesday, August 21 2019 Aug 21, 2019 Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:50:00 AM CDT August 21, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - The man who allegedly killed a woman who has been missing since 2006 arrived in Boone County Tuesday... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 9:28:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
CAMDENTON - One person has minor burns after a fire Tuesday evening at an auto shop in Camdenton. According... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 9:07:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Businesses who are applying for their medical marijuana licenses in Columbia are one step closer after Monday night's... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 6:40:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
MID-MISSOURI - Finding the perfect parking spot can be a hassle, but it can be even more difficult if you... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 6:30:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
JEFFERSON CITY - Construction crews are continuing to work on both Jefferson City public high schools in preparation for classes... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 5:45:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
VIENNA - Multiple suspects are currently being questioned after officials said someone intentionally started the house fire leading to an... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 3:59:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
JEFFERSON CITY - The FEMA recovery center for Cole County closed its doors Tuesday. The center helped hundreds of... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, August 20 2019 Aug 20, 2019 Tuesday, August 20, 2019 3:51:00 PM CDT August 20, 2019 in News
Columbia, MO
Broken Clouds 73°
1am 72°
2am 72°
3am 71°
4am 70°