NOAA increases prediction for 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

10 months 2 weeks 6 days ago Monday, August 12 2019 Aug 12, 2019 Monday, August 12, 2019 9:38:00 AM CDT August 12, 2019 in Continuous News
By: Meteorologist, Timothy Schmidt
loading

MIAMI, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has increased the likelihood of “above-normal” activity in the Atlantic Basin for the remainder of the 2019 hurricane season.

Their forecast update increased the probability of “above-normal” activity from 30% to 45%, including an increase in the amount of named storms (i.e. tropical storms) from 9-15, to 10-17 storms.

A normal Atlantic hurricane season consists of 12 named storms, 6 of which strengthen into hurricanes, 3 of those hurricanes reaching category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

To be clear, their forecasts are NOT landfall forecasts. Any seasonal landfall forecast you come across is very likely wrong. Their forecast only is to predict the number of storms with tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater, per season.

Up until the first week of August, there have only been three storms to reach tropical depression strength or greater. Two of those storms were named.

  1. Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea around May 21, which impacted Bermuda.

  2. Hurricane Barry around July 13, which impacted the Louisiana coast.

  3. Tropical depression three around July 24, off the Florida/Georgia coast.

Atmospheric conditions have not been conducive for tropical development for majority of the 2019 season, which began June 1. This is expected to change, possibly quickly and abruptly. 

Statistically, most hurricanes develop from August through October, not May through July..

On May 23, the National Hurricane Center issued its 2019 Atlantic hurricane forecast, predicting a “near-normal” amount of tropical cyclone activity this year due to a few key things:

  1. The winter El-Nino pattern would remain persistent into the summer months. This tends to discourage tropical development, suppressing overall activity

  2. Warmer than normal water temps would aid in tropical development. Would a storm develop, rapid development could be possible, as observed with Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018).

  3. The west African monsoonal season would be stronger this year, leading to increased opportunities for low pressure waves to form in the Sahara desert, then migrate into the Atlantic Ocean. This would increase the frequency of tropical storm systems (on average, 2-3 per week)

The latter two encourage tropical development, whereas the El Nino pattern would discourage tropical development

On August 8, the National Hurricane Center issued its mid-season update, predicting an increase in overall tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the 2019 season. 

The reason: the forecasted end of the current El Nino pattern which lead to significant rains over the United States this past winter and spring. This has also been responsible for the lack of overall activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. 

Pictured in this article is a diagram illustrating typical development of tropical waves in ideal conditions, which originate from Africa’s Sahara desert. 

Warm, dry areas of low pressure will organize over the warm waters of the Atlantic, creating thunderstorms. Assuming atmospheric conditions are perfect, the storm system will continue to organize and intensify until it turns into a counter-clockwise rotating cyclone, or hurricane if winds remain sustained at 74 MPH, or greater. 

Often, this is not the case. Dry air aloft kills storms. Strong, or even moderate jet stream winds aloft kills storms. These storms like calm conditions. These storms prefer a “lazy river” type of jet stream.

With some limiting factors now trending out of the long-range pattern, an uptick in tropical cyclone activity is possible leading into the peak months of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 31.

More News

Grid
List
JEFFERSON CITY — Jefferson City police investigators worked with authorities from Jacksonville, Florida to solve a 1999 cold case. ... More >>
17 minutes ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 5:32:19 PM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
TIPTON – Governor Mike Parson signed two bills on Thursday to expand internet broadband in rural Missouri. HB 1768... More >>
53 minutes ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 4:56:00 PM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA — Cities like St. Louis and Kansas City passed mask ordinances this week, and Columbia's city council will decide... More >>
2 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 3:33:00 PM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
LAKE OF THE OZARKS - Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses at the Lake of the Ozarks are preparing for large... More >>
3 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 2:38:00 PM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Mayor Brian Treece gave an update Thursday morning on his thoughts about the proposed mask ordinance. "On... More >>
3 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 2:07:00 PM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA – The extended deadline for filing income taxes is fast approaching, but help is available for those who need... More >>
4 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 1:43:00 PM CDT July 02, 2020 in Continuous News
(CNN) -- Sleep problems in early childhood may be linked to the development of certain mental health disorders in adolescence,... More >>
8 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 9:26:54 AM CDT July 02, 2020 in A Brighter Tomorrow
As COVID-19 continues to spread, KOMU 8 will continue to update you about impacts in the community. You can... More >>
10 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 7:31:00 AM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Boone County has seen its number of COVID-19 cases rise over the past few weeks. This has prompted... More >>
12 hours ago Thursday, July 02 2020 Jul 2, 2020 Thursday, July 02, 2020 4:51:00 AM CDT July 02, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - After a yearslong battle between local activists and the city that featured environmentalist Sutu Forté... More >>
19 hours ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 10:00:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
JEFFERSON CITY- Jonathan Irons was wrongfully convicted for almost 23 years in the state prison system, however Wednesday, July 1... More >>
20 hours ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 9:19:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - The Columbia City Council plans to review an ordinance on July 6 that would require people to wear... More >>
21 hours ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 8:26:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
DUBUQUE, Iowa (AP) — Officials in Dubuque have been informed that the IBM Client Innovation Center will close within four... More >>
1 day ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 5:47:27 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA —MU's Greek Life is looking at changes after the university released its new Show Me Renewal Plan for the... More >>
1 day ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 5:34:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
MISSOURI — As COVID-19 continues to spread throughout Missouri, state and local officials confirm new case counts daily. ... More >>
1 day ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 5:30:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA -— With COVID-19 limiting public firework displays this Fourth of July, health experts are warning people of the dangers... More >>
1 day ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 4:44:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA— June saw the highest numbers of COVID-19 tests in Missouri so far. Some testing centers are struggling to... More >>
1 day ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 3:59:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
HALLSVILLE — For Mid-Missouri high school football coaches, this summer is a little bit different. Due to the COVID-19... More >>
1 day ago Wednesday, July 01 2020 Jul 1, 2020 Wednesday, July 01, 2020 3:44:00 PM CDT July 01, 2020 in News
Columbia, MO
Broken Clouds 87°
6pm 87°
7pm 86°
8pm 84°
9pm 80°